How Kamala Harris’ running mate can help her chances [ Dallas Morning News ]

The day after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race, The Dallas Morning News editorial board advised its readers that the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee Kamala Harris should select for her running mate “a moderating
voice genuinely prepared to push back against her party’s progressive inclinations” in order “to show the American middle that she hears their concerns.”

Why? Because the November election, like all presidential elections in the 21st century, will be determined by swing state independent voters who “feel alienated by the policies of the far left and the far right and the rhetoric of destruction both sides use,” and “are sick of the hopeless polarization that dominates both parties,” the editorial added.

Let’s start with Harris’ political positions. Her voting record as a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021 and public statements throughout her political career fully support The Wall Street Journal’s perception that she is a “standard California progressive to the left of Biden.” Hence, to have any chance of winning most of the swing states in November, her vice presidential partner definitely needs to be a moderate who will provide ideological balance to the ticket.

Based on recent media reports, Harris is heeding The News’ advice. Word is that her finalists under consideration are Sen. Mark Kelly from Arizona, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Her choice can provide a boost to what will be a close election, decided by voters in the seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Let’s take one of these presumptive finalists at a time. In both of his past Senate races, Kelly, 60, ran as a political centrist, winning in 2020 — to complete the remainder of John McCain’s term after his death — and again in 2022. Thus, he would clearly help Harris in her campaign to win Arizona.

He also has an essentially “perfect American middle” life story for a vice presidential nominee: his mother and father were police officers, and after graduating from college magna cum laude at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, he had a distinguished record as a Navy combat pilot (flying 39 missions in the Gulf War) and as an American astronaut (piloting four space shuttle flights).

Kelly is aligned with Harris on the issues of abortion rights and climate change, though he was critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the border crisis and refused to sign on as a co-sponsor of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act. However, recently, he said he supports this legislation.

As the husband of Gabby Giffords — a former congresswoman from Arizona who survived an assassin’s bullet — and a gun owner, he’s taken a middle position on the Second Amendment and advocated for commonsense gun regulations. The only
downside: Kelly is an underwhelming stump speaker.

Shapiro, 51, can also make a strong case for being a solid “middle” running mate choice. Like Harris, he’s been in politics for most of his adult life, serving seven years as a representative in Pennsylvania’s state house, six years as the state’s attorney general and 18 months as its governor.

In his 2022 gubernatorial race, he ran as a “moderate” and trounced his Trump-supported GOP opponent by a 15% margin, receiving 16% of the Republican vote. As of now, his overall approval rating is 57% among Pennsylvanians, which includes a 42% approval rating from Republicans.

Like Kelly, Shapiro is aligned with Harris on abortion, though his stances on school choice and Israel’s position in the Gaza war are materially different from her positions. Unlike Kelly, Shapiro is a powerhouse speaker who would help deliver a win in Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. His strong support of Israel as a devout Jew, however, will surely stir the ire of those who are not aligned with his pro-Israel position, which might impact Harris’ prospects for winning Michigan.

Walz, 60, has won two terms in a blue state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. He might have some stroke in nearby swing states Wisconsin and Michigan. His national profile was elevated by his empathetic response to George Floyd’s murder and success in getting police reform legislation passed. As a former public school teacher and teachers union leader, his most dominant political position is being wholly pro-union. He has federal government experience as a 12-year congressman, and military experience as a 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard.

Walz’s most favorable political trait is as a strong “attack dog” public speaker, which would come in handy in what will clearly be a bitter race, though it would not necessarily bear fruit among independent “middle” voters who care more about candidates’ positions on issues than the amount of venom they spew.

After reviewing the political records and pertinent facts of the three perceived frontrunners for winning Harris’ running mate derby, Kelly and Shapiro are essentially tied for first as being the most appealing “middle” choices. Shapiro’s having different positions with Harris’ on school vouchers vs. teachers unions and Israel’s position in the Gaza war may well break the tie in her mind, thereby making Kelly the most likely choice to be the Democratic Party’s vice presidential candidate.

Nonetheless, given that Pennsylvania has more electoral votes than Arizona, and Harris now trails Trump in the polls in Pennsylvania and leads Trump in Arizona, assuming she’s willing to do what it takes to win in November, Shapiro will likely be Kamala Harris’ preferred choice.